1. In the West, we view China as a big, coherent unified government like we see reflected by the Olympics Opening Ceremonies in Beijing. But China is normally chaotic. Most Chinese citizens feel this way. Their reaction to the Olympics Opening Ceremony was closer to "I can't believe our government actually pulled that off." Think of China like a continent, like the EU. It's more an assemblage of highly individual peoples. And like Americans, the Chinese are much more absorbed by their own tensions in their own local communities than caring about the West.
   
    
2. There are areas where the Chinese government can "swing its arm" quickly and get the job done, like cracking down on the media. But not everywhere, certainly not when it comes to cleaning up their environment. What about the Communist Party? There are really no Communists in China anymore. Westerners should just change that word to "Incumbents." There is no threat in China to "One Party Rule". The main threat to that party is still rural poverty, which could lead to a revolt. For every conflict in China, the party has this approach - Plan A: Placate. Plan B: Repress. In the case of any revolt, they'll just go to Plan B.
   
    
3. Is China the "land of the future"? Maybe. Their GDP growth was 11.9% year-over-year in the first quarter. But their GDP is still only $4.9 trillion compared to the U.S. $14.3 trillion. The Chinese are aware they have enormous problems to overcome. Too many people still don't have indoor plumbing... more than the entire population of the United States. In the West, we think of China's potential like this: "Take our markets and multiply everything by 1.3 Billion." The Chinese think of their resources like this: "Divide everything by 1.3 Billion".
   
    
4. The Chinese do not feel they are the Paymasters of the U.S. They feel they are hostage to our economy.
   
    
5. Is China a "Big Brother" State? Twenty-five years ago it was a "police state" with a lot of monitoring. Not so much today. There are still certain controls that are overbearing... media, political dissention. But then there are many controls that are too lax... just ask anyone about the traffic controls there. The truth is that the role of politics in China is often 80% of what we read about there. But it's maybe only 2% of what the Chinese are reading about.
   
    
6. In America, we combine Liberty and Democracy as if they are the same word. The reality is we are often more interested in democracy than personal liberties. The Chinese are the opposite.
   
    
7. Is China a "soft power," quietly replacing the western economic model? There's nothing soft about it. They are blatantly trying to do just that. Should China revalue their currency? Yes, and they will. But what we have to understand is they don't want to do it in response to U.S. pressure. What about Chinese real estate? Isn't that another bubble that could effect the global markets? It's more of a problem for the Tier One cities in China... and James doubts it could be a global problem. The Chinese have the resources to bail themselves out when they need to. What about their higher education, and surplus of engineers? No, academia is more of a problem in China than in the United States. They have a long way to go to catch up to our quality of academia, at least at the university level. No important research has ever come out and been ranked by any Chinese university, and there are profound problems of academic corruption.
   
    
8. Is China becoming the "hard power" of the world? Is their military power expanding? China actually has a long way to go to catch up militarily. The last real engagement for them was in Vietnam. It was an enormous loss for the Chinese. They lost more soldiers in a single day than the U.S. has lost in the last twelve years. And what about Taiwan? James sees Taiwan as the only possible catalyst to a war or real crisis between the U.S. and China. It's a very dangerous issue. We should all hope it's contained for a long time. What about nuclear proliferation? It's hard to know what China will do, because it's a genuine dilemma for the Chinese. They don't know what to do. North Korea and Iran will be the two test cases.
   
    
9. Will China's growth eventually become a huge problem for the U.S.? Yes, it's possible. But not inevitable.

Fallows closed his talk with another cough, and summed it up this way:
 

"Our relationship with China is mutually beneficial. It is not a zero-sum game. But as in every long-term relationship, there will be times we disagree. By far the gravest problem for China and for the West is environmental collaboration."